Niccolo Machiavelli Goes To California By Patrick J. Egan and Kenneth Sherrill

Citizens respect virtue. Voters admire strength. You became governor because the citizens of California rejected a man they saw as weak and ineffective. They replaced him with you because they believed you to be strong and independent. But after an initial honeymoon period, your popularity with the citizens has plummeted. As you have taken positions that please only the right-wing voters who make up an ever-decreasing minority in California politics, your standing with the state’s Democrats and Independents is in a freefall. Even worse, these actions have transformed you from a dashing celebrity into a predictable politician—and in the Golden State of reinvention, innovation, and fads, predictability is rarely an asset.

It’s time to change the subject. And on the uniquely twenty-first-century issue of gay marriage, you just passed up a great opportunity to do so. With California’s likely voters split evenly (46 percent to 46 percent) on whether gay couples should be allowed to be legally married, the state legislature had passed a bill last month enabling same-sex couples to wed. You announced plans to veto the legislation, saying that this was a matter to be decided by the people and not by the legislature, and on September 29 you followed through on that pledge. Many take this to be a cowardly, even craven, capitulation to the groups of the religious right who have such power in Republican primaries. California’s Democratic and Independent voters—who were key to your 2003 recall-election victory and are vital to your reelection in 2006—support gay marriage by nearly twenty-point margins. Your veto has given them one more reason to fear that you are not the man of principle they imagined you to be.

It doesn’t matter what you personally believe about gay marriage. The issue gave you the opportunity to deflect attention from your crumbling agenda and to fight in a new arena. You could have changed your mind about the veto and signed the legislation with great flourish, calling it a bold stand for justice—or mentioning California’s “live and let live” ethos—but, in the end, your justification for signing the bill would have meant little. The important thing is that you could once again have appeared to be principled and independent. You could have sown dissention in the ranks of moderates and liberals who, truth be told, are dissatisfied with the faceless pols who are vying for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.

Evidently, you decided you couldn’t be so bold when you went ahead and vetoed the bill. But it is still possible to reap some political benefit from this issue. At the least, you should explicitly oppose the currently proposed initiatives that would not only forbid same-sex couples from marrying, but would also strip them of domestic partners’ benefits and other rights they currently enjoy in California. You hinted at—but did not specifically mention—opposition to the initiatives in your message accompanying your veto.

Remember that your great predecessor Ronald Reagan publicly opposed the ill-conceived Briggs Initiative of 1978, which would have prevented lesbians and gays from teaching in California’s schools. In August 1978, the Field Poll showed overwhelming (61 percent to 31 percent) support for the proposal. On election day, it went down to a resounding 58-42 defeat. Reagan’s opposition was announced well after the campaign against the measure was underway. But he was accorded a great deal of credit (by John Briggs himself) for the initiative’s defeat—and went on to be president of the United States and a greatly beloved figure in American history.

You know that the editorial pages of the Los Angeles Times and the San Francisco Chronicle will oppose these referenda. Show your great leadership skills on this issue, and the papers may just endorse you as well. When the people reject the referenda, California will be hailed as a great beacon of liberty, equality, and justice for all. You will be hailed as the great leader who enabled the people of California to reach such heights of democratic virtue. Most importantly, your demonstration of courageous leadership will result in your reelection.

From: Niccolo Machiavelli

To: Gays and lesbians of California

Subject: Standing up for your rights gains you respect

Citizens despise cowards. Start fighting for your rights and force others to confront their prejudices. Gain respect, seem strong, and you will prevail. More people are willing to support you than you think. The passage of thirteen state referenda denying marriage rights to gays and lesbians in 2004 left you flat on your backs. And with two initiatives that would further curtail the rights of same-sex couples being proposed in California, despair is a natural reaction.

But now is not the time to whine, or to wait to be rescued by the courts. This is a battle you can win. Just look at the polls. Overwhelming majorities of Americans—and, surely, Californians—support legislation to protect gay people against discrimination in employment. Back in 2004, nearly three-quarters of Californians said they supported either gay marriage or civil unions. Today, California's likely voters are split down the middle on the right of gays to marry—and you have yet to begin to fight, while your opponents have already rolled out their heavy artillery.

So take a cue from your opponents on the religious right, whom you fear and despise so much: Organize. Yes, raise the money from your friends in Hollywood and San Francisco necessary to run an ad campaign that reaches every California voter. But you need to do more than that: Recruit and train a volunteer army of gays, lesbians, and friendly straights who can talk with families, friends, neighbors, and coworkers about the reality of gay and lesbian lives. Demonstrate how being denied the right to marry affects every aspect of those lives. You haven’t done a very good job of explaining what the denial of marriage means when it comes to buying a home or to caring for a sick child in the hospital. Help your fellow citizens put themselves in your shoes, and they will become your allies in your struggle.

After all, as a great man once said, the one who adapts his policy to the times prospers. If the polls in California mean anything, the time to stand up for yourselves is now.

Patrick J. Egan is a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of California, Berkeley. Kenneth Sherrill is a professor of political science at Hunter College, City University of New York.

For more on polling in California and prospects for Arnold Schwarzenneger’s policy agenda, see “Governor Schwarzenneger Takes His Chances” in this month’s issue of Public Opinion Pros.

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Niccolo Machiavelli Goes To California, Advises: Be Virtuous