In the absence of a campaign focus on Social Security, Medicare, and prescription drugs, the socially conservative side of seniors prevailed. National security issues certainly played a role, but in many ways it was a lost opportunity for Democrats, as many seniors saw Bush's focus on Iraq as neglect for America and our problems at home. In fact, seniors were the most likely age group to feel that the Iraq War made America less rather than more secure, as evidenced by a Democracy Corps survey conducted in the days after the election in which 50 percent of seniors said the Iraq War made America less secure, while only 40 percent said it made America more secure. And seniors were no more likely than other voters in the Democracy Corps survey to "worry that Kerry would not be resolute enough before the terrorist threat."

Ultimately, cultural values were critical to Bush's success with seniors, who are the most conservative group in the electorate on these issues. While 55 percent of Americans under thirty believe gay marriage should be legal, only 21 percent of seniors support legalization, according to a January 2005 ABC News/ Washington Post poll. Although a majority of Americans (55 percent) believes abortion should be legal in most or all cases, only 45 percent of seniors share that belief, according to a December 2004 ABC/ Post poll. These two issues are not the whole story on values, but they contribute to a broader conservative view towards cultural values among seniors that separated John Kerry and George W. Bush.

For Democrats, the implications of 2004 are clear: First, they must do more to reassure seniors on values. Bill Clinton did this in 1992 on issues like crime and by signing the Family and Medical Leave Act shortly after his inauguration. But in the end, Clinton's personal scandals made Democrats' job of reassuring on values more difficult. Democrats need to do it not by throwing a "moral values" label on every issue, but by speaking comfortably about family and about character and by offering an agenda, as Clinton did, that speaks to values.

The second implication is that Democrats need to do battle on policies that are central to the lives of seniors. As President Bush's proposal, which would replace the Social Security benefit for which American workers have paid with the instability of the stock market, continues to flounder, we return to more fertile ground for Democrats. The political stakes are high-so high that Bush was unwilling to traverse this terrain before November. For Democrats, there are new opportunities, if the party is unified and confident that it can offer a vision that protects Social Security now and for the future.

Michael Bocian is associate vice president at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. GQR conducts the research for Democratic candidates, and progressive causes including Democracy Corps, a nonprofit organization founded by Stan Greenberg (chairman of GQR), James Carville, and Bob Shrum.

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