Confidence-building measures

Because Israelis and Palestinians remain far apart on key issues, some area experts have advised that more limited objectives be set for the initial conference, and that it be viewed as the start of an ongoing political process with future negotiations designed to expand the areas of agreement, as well as the list of participants.

Recent survey findings on the Israeli and Palestinian publics’ top concerns and the major threats they now see facing them provide a good starting point for a discussion of short-term confidence-building measures that each side might implement. The Pew Research Center asked both Israelis and Palestinians, as well as a number of other publics, “which countries or groups [up to three responses accepted] pose the greatest threat” to them in the future. For the Israeli public, Iran topped the list (65 percent), followed by Hezbollah (47 percent) and Hamas (35 percent). The Palestinian territories (20 percent) essentially tied for fourth place with Syria (24 percent) and al Qaeda (22 percent). For the Palestinian public, Israel (60 percent) and the United States (48 percent) clearly headed its list of external threats.

However, when Palestinians were asked by PSR in June which of five issues poses the “greatest threat or danger” to them, “the Israeli occupation and settlements” placed fourth at 12 percent, behind “the possibility of Palestinian infighting” (32 percent), “anarchy and lawlessness” (24 percent), and “poverty and unemployment” (21 percent). When NEC asked Palestinians an open-ended question regarding the “main issue that makes you feel concerned,” the “Israeli occupation” again placed fourth (8 percent), behind “the economic hardship of my household” (35 percent), “the internal power struggle” (22 percent), and “the absence of security for me and my family” (20 percent).

It follows that initial confidence-building measures for Palestinians would include steps to improve their economic conditions, and many Israelis seem inclined to help—to a point. When asked last June how their country should assist the Abbas-led government in its confrontation with Hamas, a majority of Israelis approved providing humanitarian assistance (58 percent) and releasing frozen Palestinian funds (55 percent). However, an even larger majority opposed removing checkpoints (71 percent), which clearly constrict Palestinian economic life (Peace Index). Israeli public support for removing checkpoints probably requires an enforceable end to terrorist and rocket attacks against Israel. According to the Truman Center, Israelis were closely divided about a proposal contained in the “American Plan” which called for ending terrorism and rocket attacks on Israel in exchange for Israel opening border crossings, removing roadblocks, and allowing passage of goods and people between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank (45 percent in favor versus 52 percent opposed).

While some surveys have shown that a majority of Palestinians believe terrorist actions and rocket attacks inside Israel are justified in their situation, others indicate most Palestinians believe such attacks are counterproductive to their long-term interests. For example, nearly two-thirds in a May survey by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University believed “firing rockets from the Gaza Strip against Israel” either “hurts the Palestinian national struggle” (40 percent) or “is useless” (23 percent) to that cause, compared to one-third who said it “helps” the Palestinian national struggle. A 63 percent to 36 percent majority of Palestinians expressed support for the “American Plan” on which the Israeli public was closely divided. These findings indicate that a clear majority of Palestinians would support enforceable measures to prevent suicide and rocket attacks if they were accompanied by removal of checkpoints and tangible economic relief.

Negotiating partners

Neither the Israeli nor Palestinian leadership is in a strong political position at home. On the Pew Research Center’s leadership confidence measures last spring, only 31 percent of the Israeli public had “a lot” (7 percent) or “some confidence” (24 percent) in Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert in handling foreign affairs (versus 64 percent little or no confidence). Palestinian confidence in President Mahmoud Abbas was higher—22 percent had “a lot” of confidence and 34 percent “some confidence,” versus 42 percent reporting little or no confidence in his handling of foreign affairs. Each leader would be strengthened at home by an agreement that met the immediate needs of their people, offered good prospects for future progress on core issues, and had the support of major foreign partners.

Unfortunately, no single country or organization enjoys widespread favor among both the Israeli and the Palestinian publics. When the Pew Center asked the Israeli public “which countries can Israel most rely on as dependable allies in the future” (with up to three responses accepted), 87 percent named the United States, 46 percent Britain, and 12 percent France. No other country scored in double figures. When this question was posed to Palestinians, 21 percent named Saudi Arabia and 13 percent Iran, 9 percent each named Egypt, Syria, and the United States, 8 percent named France, and 6 percent named Jordan.