In sum, we find in California an increasing concern about global warming and an increase in perception of the threat posed by it, and growing support for independent state action to address this environmental issue.

Using the data from the PPIC surveys for further analysis, we have found that attitudes about state government play a significant role in support for state-level global warming policies in California. Belief that the state is on the right track in addressing this issue is a strong predictor of support for global warming policies, as is the belief that California should make its own policies to address this issue and approval of the governor’s handling of environmental issues. On the other hand, federal government attitudes are not related to support for state-level global warming policies, including approval of the president’s handling of environmental issues and the belief that the federal government is on the right track on global warming.

The much more significant role played by state government than the federal government in predicting support for state-level global warming policy is important. The July 2006 PPIC survey was taken at a time when Californians were largely in agreement across demographic and political groups about the threat of global warming and support for global warming policies. Also, GOP governor Schwarzenegger and the Democratic-controlled legislature were involved in host of bipartisan activities on this issue, including the passage of AB 32 last fall. By contrast, although Californians have a negative attitude toward the president and the federal government’s activities in the environmental policy arena at this time, this is not a significant factor in their support for state-level policies. As other states consider a move toward state-level global warming policy, these results would suggest that people’s support depends much more on their confidence in state government than their disapproval of the federal government in this policy domain.

Some other areas would be worthy of additional research. In our examination of policy support, we did not look at willingness to make personal changes in behavior to address the issue of global warming, or to make personal economic sacrifices to ameliorate the problem. Although Riley Dunlap argued in 1998 that regulations and incentives at a national and international level would be more important than changes in consumption and behavior at the individual level, willingness to address the issue at a microlevel through policy could also be important. In a 2006 mail survey with adults nationwide, Anthony Leiserowitz found that while there was overwhelming support for the United States to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions (90 percent) and for the Kyoto Protocol (88 percent), support dropped dramatically when it came to instituting a “gas guzzler” tax (54 percent), instituting a market-based emissions trading system (40 percent), raising taxes on businesses (31 percent), and raising the gas tax (17 percent) as ways to address global warming.

In a similar vein, it would be useful to distinguish between the personal and the greater societal threat of global warming in determining policy support. Sammy Zahran and colleagues recently found personal risk perceptions to be a strong predictor of policy support (in a geographic analysis, perceptions were an even better predictor than objective measures of risk). Irene Lorenzoni and Nick Pidgeon have pointed out that the threat of climate change remains somewhat distant and abstract, and that willingness to make lifestyle changes and to support policies will depend on personal and societal risk perception, knowledge, and trust in government to handle the issue. As global warming is becoming a fact of life in the twenty-first century, there will be ample opportunities to study the link between measures of public opinion and policy support in California and elsewhere.

Sonja Petek is research associate and survey project manager at the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), and Mark Baldassare is president and CEO at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy and directs the PPIC Statewide Surveys.