When pollsters mentioned a particular timeframe, asking respondents whether they worried that another terrorist attack would occur “soon,” we found that the actual statements by U.S. administration officials alerting the public to specific terrorist threats or speaking in more general terms about the threat had the strongest impact on public opinion. The public’s perceptions fluctuated noticeably, while the same basic pattern occurred with respect to the original statements by officials. In June 2002, when there were more official statements about the terrorist threat and the increase in the alert level, the public reacted with a sharp increase (from 20 percent in January, the last time the question was asked, to 32 percent) in the level of worry. In February 2003, several actual statements by officials followed a couple of quiet months and were followed by a sharp increase in the percentage of the Americans revealing that they were very worried about a terrorist attack occurring soon—with the percentage nearly doubling from 18 percent in January 2003 to 34 percent in February.

Focusing next on the issue of the likelihood of another terrorist attack in the United States within a “few months,” we found an apparent impact of both the media’s coverage of President Bush’s comments and assessments concerning the terrorist threat, as well as of actual statements by U.S. administration officials alerting the public to specific terror threats or speaking in more general terms.

It is interesting to note in Figure 2 the corresponding high and low levels in all three variables. In June 2002 more people—36 percent compared to 29 percent in May—believed it “very likely” that another terrorist attack would happen within the next few months. In the same month, there were seven original statements by officials about the terrorist threat and higher alert level (as opposed to an average of three or four in the previous months), and television news reported one pertinent comment by President Bush. Another peak occurred in October-November 2002, with 27 percent of the public responding that a terrorist attack was “very likely” in the next few months; this coincided with two actual statements by officials in October, followed by six such pronouncements in November.

Figure 2

In February 2003, 29 percent of the public, up from 14 percent in January, believed an attack was very likely to happen within the next few months. During that time, television news carried three threat messages by President Bush, and officials made five actual threat statements. Not surprisingly, from July to September 2004, during the buildup to the final phase of the presidential election campaign, 19 percent of the public, up from 12 percent in April, thought it very likely that another attack would happen within a few months. During this time, television news frequently carried threat and alert messages by President Bush, and administration officials just as often made similar pronouncements.

Looking at perceived threats at the personal level, as shown in Figure 3, we find a slightly different picture. When it came to the public’s own deepest concerns, perceptions about Osama bin Laden may have mattered most. Specifically, the variables were those related to public officials’ (including President Bush’s) comments on TV about bin Laden or the al-Qaeda threat; news anchors, correspondents or reporters describing bin Laden or the al-Qaeda threats; the actual warnings or threats of more terrorist attacks by bin Laden and his al-Qaeda associates themselves; and U.S. officials’ actual statements about the threat of terrorism.

Figure 3

Figure 3 shows that, even as time passed, a relatively high percentage of the public continued to say they were very or somewhat worried that they and their loved ones would be affected personally by a terrorist attack. Though we see spikes in the trend, the overall pattern is fairly steady. It is interesting to note that in this case, unlike the others, just mentioning bin Laden or al-Qaeda in TV news, or the appearance of bin Laden or al-Qaeda in tapes, seemed to matter.