Who Wears the Pants? Hillary Clinton’s Prospective First Gentleman

By David C. Wilson

Candidates for the presidential election of 2008 have many big-name endorsers. Republican Mike Huckabee has the public support of martial arts star and actor Chuck Norris. Democrat Barack Obama has the public support of entertainer and entrepreneur Oprah Winfrey. But one could argue that none of these names tops Hillary Clinton’s biggest endorser, former president Bill Clinton.

Hillary Clinton is the Democratic frontrunner in national polls. She has experience with important domestic issues such as health care, especially child health, having served as a director of the Children's Defense Fund. She has professional experience as a lawyer. Most importantly, she has political experience as a senator from New York, and from gubernatorial and presidential stints as a First Lady in both the state of Arkansas and the White House. Her successful senatorial campaigns show she is electable, and her experiences in the executive office show she understands politics. Yet, to some, Hillary is still the “former First Lady,” wife of Bill Clinton.

Bill Clinton’s presidency was, for the most part, extremely positive among Americans when he was in office, and remains relatively popular even today. As recently as March 2007, a USA Today/Gallup Poll reported a 60 percent favorability rating for the former president. In the same poll, 71 percent of adults said they believed Bill Clinton was a good president, while only 21 percent thought he was a bad one. When a more recent (September 2007) ABC News/Washington Post poll of U.S. adults asked, "Thinking back to when Bill Clinton was in office, would you say you approve or disapprove of the way Clinton handled his job as president?" 66 percent said they approved. Whether the aura of the Clinton name offers a potential boost for Hillary, however, is for the most part speculative, and questions remain about Bill Clinton’s impact on Hillary’s candidacy, and what role(s) he would play as “First Gentleman” in the White House.

As a first lady, Hillary Clinton was loved by Clinton supporters, but critics sometimes attacked her for getting involved in “her husband's job.” Many saw her official involvement in political matters as unsuccessful. Her health-care plan ultimately failed, and she eventually retreated from the spotlight.

But the role the president's wife should play has always been a topic of national debate. Traditionally, First Ladies have been expected to be outgoing, attractive, the president's most public supporter, and whenever possible, seen and not heard—a role that seems increasingly outdated, given huge gains for women in equality at home and in the workplace, and one that Hillary Clinton never played. Complicating matters further, the job of First Spouse itself is ambiguous. Though not on the government payroll, she or he naturally influences the president. First Spouses have budgets, a staff, and usually office space in the White House. Unlike the presidency, however, the job is not defined by law. Each spouse—until now, each First Lady—has had to shape her own role in the position.

By the same token, Bill Clinton has said he will do whatever is asked of him as the First Gentleman, but, as the “first” First Gentleman, he would set a precedent both for male First Spouses and for former presidents in the quasi-political White House office. Given the effectiveness of his presidency and his popularity, it is extremely unlikely he will simply be seen and not heard. Thus, if Hillary Clinton is elected, the American people will get the former “President of the United States” Bill Clinton, too—but in what form?

Using data from a Gallup Poll Panel study that included questions on this subject, I report how the optimism toward Hillary Clinton as a presidential candidate is associated with beliefs about the role Bill Clinton would play as a presidential spouse, and what activities the public would find acceptable for Bill Clinton as a First Gentleman.

In the Gallup study, conducted February 22-25, 2007, the public was highly optimistic about Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the presidency. As Figure 1 shows, about 73 percent of all respondents, and approximately 58 and 88 percent of Republicans and Democrats, respectively, believed Clinton had an excellent or good chance of winning in the 2008 presidential election.

While these numbers were strong, they were not relative to any other candidate. In comparison to other likely candidates, the public might have been less sanguine about Clinton’s chances.

In fact, as Figure 2 shows, a Clinton victory was not completely guaranteed. When compared to other candidates in “horse race” questions, Clinton had mixed results. While a slightly higher percentage of all respondents and Democrats said Clinton had a better chance of winning than Barack Obama, more Republicans believed Obama could win. Obama was the only competition among the candidates, however. Neither John Edwards nor Al Gore (the latter, of course, not running for president and included only hypothetically) was believed to have a stronger chance of winning than Clinton. These results speak to the optimism toward Hillary Clinton, even as far back as February, indicating in turn a belief on the part of respondents that Bill Clinton might well find himself in the role of First Gentleman.