Why All the Hoopla? California Governor's Election May Signal National Partisan Shift

By Mark Baldassare

The 2006 midterm election comes at a time when many Americans are feeling gloomy about the direction of the country and disapproving of the leadership of President Bush and the Republican-led Congress. Recent polls indicate that, if the election were held today, the Democrats could take back control of the House, and the Republican majority in the Senate could be slimmer next year. There are also thirty-six governors' races in the fifty states this fall, with thirteen Democrats and thirteen Republicans up for reelection and ten open seats of which all but one is currently held by a Republican. The Republicans' margin over the Democrats in control of the governor’s offices (twenty-two to twenty-eight) would also appear to be in jeopardy if, indeed, a general backlash against GOP leadership is underway.

Against this national backdrop, the California governor’s election has garnered unusual media attention in a state known for reliably reelecting its incumbents. The last time a sitting governor failed in a reelection bid was in 1942—when Democrat Culbert Olson lost. Why all the hoopla? California is a solidly “blue” state that is painted “red” in the governor’s column because of a 2003 recall in which Democrat Gray Davis was ousted and replaced by GOP movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger. The race between GOP governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic state treasurer Phil Angelides is seen as a test case for the depth of voter dissatisfaction with the GOP and a Democratic resurgence. Moreover, with its fifty-three congressional seats and fifty-five electoral college votes—by far the most in the nation—California’s elections attract national attention because they may have implications for control of Congress in 2006 and the presidency in 2008.  

With both campaigns shifting into high gear after the June primary, the lead for the incumbent governor before Labor Day was seemingly insurmountable. In the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) Statewide Survey released in late August, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was ahead of State Treasurer Phil Angelides by thirteen points (45 percent to 32 percent), with about one in six voters undecided. Schwarzenegger’s lead over Angelides was seventeen points in our September survey (48 percent to 31 percent), with one in six not sure.

Yet no one in the GOP governor’s camp is declaring victory, and the Democratic challenger’s supporters believe they still have a fighting chance to win. The campaigns are in agreement that the race will be close—after all, the national press has given California the blue state designation for good reasons. The Democrats have easily won the past four presidential races going back to 1992, and both of the U.S. Senators from California have been Democrats since that turning point.

A decade later, in November 2002, the Democrats swept all of the executive branch offices for the first time in state history—governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general, controller, treasurer, and insurance commissioner—and took solid control of the state’s Congressional delegation and both houses of the state legislature.