More evidence of the rejection of Republican policies and the high expectations for the Democrats was provided by the AP-Ipsos poll, which found that Americans by a 42 percent to 21 percent margin believed the country would be better off now that Democrats had won control of Congress. In that poll, Iraq was chosen by twice as many people as its closest competitor (terrorism) as the highest priority for Congress in the next two years.

But people also had doubts whether either party had a clear plan for Iraq. Three-fourths in the Pew poll said they did not believe President Bush had a clear plan. Almost as many said the same about the Democratic leaders of Congress.

Half in the AP-Ipsos poll had doubts that the president and Democrats in Congress would be able to work together.

By almost a two-to-one margin, the Pew poll found, people want the Democratic leaders in Congress and not President Bush to take the lead on the nation’s top problems. They don't expect a lot from the president; two-thirds in a Newsweek postelection poll said they don't expect the president will be able to accomplish much in the remainder of his second term.

On the other hand, the poll found that any proposals of congressional Democrats had widespread public support—especially efforts to negotiate lower prices for prescription drugs, raise the minimum wage, and investigate contracts related to the Iraq War. Three-fourths said allowing the government to negotiate directly with pharmaceutical companies should be a top priority, and two-thirds said increasing the minimum wage should be. Only four in ten rated rolling back some of the Bush tax cuts as a top priority. On many of these issues, independents' enthusiasm for the measures was about halfway between the Democrats’ and Republicans’.

Clearly, independent voters were motivated strongly in the 2006 midterm elections by their feelings about the president and the war in Iraq. They were more likely to disapprove of the president than voters in general, more likely to be dissatisfied or angry with the president, and more likely to disapprove of Congress. They were more likely to disapprove of the war in Iraq. The last time independent voters showed such a sharp split was when they backed Republicans 55 percent to 41 percent in 1994—the year of the GOP takeover of Congress.

Republican strategists like Karl Rove were talking about building a permanent Republican majority, with Rove erroneously claiming right up until the election that the GOP would hold onto Congress. How did he miscalculate so badly? According to GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio,

"It comes from mistakenly believing you can own an issue forever—terrorism. It's mistaking voters’ going along with you on a single issue with a political realignment."

Some political pollsters say they think it will be tough for the GOP to win back the swing voters as long as the Iraq War is a central issue. And some in the GOP, most notably Nebraska senator Chuck Hagel, have called for a "phased troop withdrawal" from Iraq.

As the voters have dramatically carved out a new political landscape, both Democrats and Republicans will scramble to lay claim to that valuable bit of real estate—the political center. That competition to win back the swing voters should make the next two years a fascinating time to watch their strategies and see what works.