Voters with Clout: Swing Groups Swing the Midterm Elections By Will Lester

The 2006 midterm elections will be remembered as a time when swing voters—especially independent voters—reminded the country emphatically that they have the power to decide an election. Independents voted for Democrats by a 57 percent to 39 percent margin, according to exit polls—the widest margin for Democrats in two decades of exit polling. Republicans also lost among suburbanites, Catholics, and the middle class—groups it had been courting successfully in recent years—and lost ground in their efforts to woo Hispanics. As a result, Democrats took control of both the House and the Senate. The exit polls suggested that voters were upset about President Bush, Iraq, and corruption and scandals in government.

“The Republican base turned out and held. But for the first time in a decade, independents preferred Democratic over Republican House candidates, this time by eighteen points," said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. This was in contrast to the last four elections, in which independents split fairly evenly between Democrats and Republicans. Further highlighting the critical role played by independents this November was the vote by the respective parties for House candidates: Democrats voted for Democratic candidates by a 93 percent to 7 percent margin, and Republicans backed GOP candidates by 91 percent to 8 percent.

A number of other swing groups tilted toward Democrats in the 2006 midterm elections. Among them were the following:

Though the rejection of the GOP on election day carried more of a sting, swing voters created a dilemma for both parties. The voters not only cast Republicans out of office, but they created high expectations for Democrats, saying in postelection polling that they preferred congressional Democrats to take the lead on the nation’s top problems. According to Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, these expectations are manageable: “The elections were more about firing Republicans than hiring Democrats,” she said. But, she added, “We need to deliver right out of the box.”

For the time being, Republicans have lost their silver bullet: The loss of their advantage over Democrats on the issue of terrorism sealed the GOP's fate. Those who said terrorism was very or extremely important to their vote split their support between Democrats and Republicans, exit polls found.

Led by top strategists like White House political adviser Karl Rove, Republicans had perfected the politics that solidified their base along with Republican-leaning independents, while winning the support of other swing voters afraid of Democratic leadership in times of terrorism. After using that formula successfully in 2002 and 2004, GOP candidates and their top-ranked campaigner President Bush went back to that playbook one more time. They hoped that terror fears would trump anger over Iraq, and they cast Iraq as a crucial safeguard in the war on terror.

Voters weren't buying it. Most said the war in Iraq was not making this country more secure, and their feelings about the Iraq War and the president were closely tied to their votes. Of the 56 percent who disapproved of the Iraq War, about four out of five voted Democratic; of the 44 percent who approved of the war, about four out of five voted Republican. The voting patterns were very similar for the 57 percent who disapproved of President Bush, and the 43 percent who approved.

Postelection polls continued to show public skepticism about the war on the rise, with almost two-thirds of respondents to a Pew Research Center poll saying the U.S. military effort was not going well—the highest percentage to say that in a Pew poll. People are growing more pessimistic about the establishment of a democracy in Iraq, the training of Iraqi forces, and the prevention of civilian casualties.

Despite this pessimism, only about half of those in the Pew poll thought the troops in Iraq should be brought home as soon as possible, while half said they should stay until the situation had stabilized. That's about the same split as a year ago. Only one in six wanted troops brought home right away, while the remainder of those who wanted them to leave said the right schedule is in the next year or so. According to an AP-Ipsos poll taken right after the election, only three in ten—31 percent—said they approved of the president's handling of Iraq, That was Bush's lowest rating ever on handling Iraq in that poll and down from 36 percent a month previously.