Eight citizens’ initiatives qualified for the November ballot, including the three measures endorsed by the governor and five supported by various interest groups.

In our recent polling, none of the three measures favored by Schwarzenegger received the majority vote needed to pass in November. Each faces organized opposition. Thus, the governor is actively seeking financial support for what is likely to be a costly effort to pass his reforms.

Proposition 74 is an education measure that would increase the probationary period for teachers from two to five years and modify the process by which school boards can dismiss a teacher with two unsatisfactory performance evaluations. When read the ballot language in the September polling, 43 percent of likely voters said they would vote yes, and 47 percent would vote no. While a majority of Democrats would vote no (60 percent), a majority of Republicans would vote yes (64 percent), and more Independents would vote no than yes (40 percent to 50 percent). Support for the measure was helped by the 75 percent of Californians who rated poor teacher performance as at least somewhat of a problem, while opposition was fueled by the fact that 82 percent of voters believe that retaining good teachers is a problem.

Proposition 76 would limit state spending to prior revenue growth, change the school funding level passed by the voters, and permit the governor to reduce budget appropriations without the legislature’s approval. In the September survey, 63 percent of likely voters said they would vote no, and 26 percent would vote yes. While majorities of Democrats (81 percent) and Independents (65 percent) opposed the measure, Republicans favored it (48 percent to 41 percent). In our September survey, 49 percent said that a strict spending limit was a good idea; however, in previous polls, they said they wanted increased school funding and disliked the idea of allowing the governor to change the budget without the legislature’s approval.

Proposition 77—the third citizens’ initiative supported by the governor—would take the responsibility of redistricting California’s senate, assembly, and congressional districts out of the hands of the legislature and give it to a three-member panel of retired judges selected by legislative leaders. Among likely voters, 33 percent would vote yes, and 50 percent would vote no, while a large proportion (17 percent) were undecided. While 51 percent of Republicans would vote yes, a majority of Democrats (66 percent) and Independents (54 percent) would vote no if the election were held today. The governor is banking on the low approval ratings of the legislature to help pass this measure, but support fell well short of a majority because many voters ranked their individual representatives in favorable terms, and fewer than half believed independent redistricting would actually lead to more effective representation than they have today.  

The reform measure that is currently enjoying the most support was not originally part of Schwarzenegger’s agenda, though he endorsed this initiative in September. Proposition 75, which prohibits the use of public employee union dues without individual employees’ prior consent, has garnered majority approval among likely voters (58 percent yes, 33 percent no). In our August survey, it had strong support from Republicans (72 percent) and Independents (64 percent), while Democrats were divided (46 percent yes, 42 percent no). The measure received a boost from the large proportion of voters who approved of placing restrictions on the abilities of labor unions (55 percent) and business corporations (61 percent) to contribute to political candidates and ballot initiatives.

However, it should be noted that a similar measure on union restrictions in 1998 took an early lead in the polls, only to be defeated when Democratic and labor interests reminded voters that its passage could result in campaign finance laws mostly favoring the GOP in partisan contests. Still, the inclusion of Proposition 75 on the special election ballot means that the major parties, conservative groups, and union interests are highly invested in the November election.