Governor Schwarzenegger Takes His Chances By Mark Baldassare page4

Among the other measures qualifying, Proposition 73 would require doctors to notify parents when a minor seeks an abortion. Likely voters were divided on this issue (44 percent yes, 48 percent no) with sharp partisan differences. Six in ten Republicans supported the measure, while a similar proportion of Democrats were opposed, and Independents were divided (45 percent yes, 47 percent no). Could this hot-button issue bring out the activists, and will it sway the voting electorate toward the left or the right? While 50 percent of likely voters said the outcome of Proposition 73 was “very important” to them, the supporters and opponents were equally likely to express a high level of concern about what will happen to this measure on November 8.

Propositions 78 and 79 are dueling initiatives that were placed on the ballot by, respectively, the pharmaceutical companies and consumer activists, offering voters alternative programs for prescription drug discounts. The industry groups plan to spend tens of millions of dollars promoting a voluntary program, while consumer groups will actively campaign for a mandatory one. In our September survey, Proposition 78 (43% yes, 38% no) received more support than Proposition 79 (34% yes, 40% no); however, many voters are undecided and fewer than two in 10 could correctly identify the sponsors for these two initiatives.

Finally, Proposition 80 seeks to re-regulate the electricity industry, which has come under criticism ever since the state’s deregulation plan was blamed for power disruptions in 2001. Once again, this measure is likely to attract big spending by the “no” campaign funded by corporate interests, and energetic efforts on the part of consumer groups and their political allies. Thus far, we have no polling results on this measure.

There is a real possibility that the governor’s reform measures could be overshadowed in paid advertising by the consumer measures and in voter interest by an abortion measure, and trumped in political significance by campaign restrictions on union dues. Win or lose, these five measures may define the meaning of the special election for voters in ways that the governor and his opponents had not conceived and can no longer control.

However, the wild card in this election is Governor Schwarzenegger and his approval ratings. Some believe that his persuasive powers will once again carry the day with voters, as they did in 2004. Others think voters have lost faith in him, and his loss of Democratic allies will be sorely felt. In the end, the election will be won only if the governor is able to communicate his message of change more effectively outside of his GOP party base than he is doing today. The special election will have repercussions for the governor’s race next year and, if his measures somehow pass, he and his reform proposals will attract a national audience. Whatever the outcome, Schwarzenegger has given Californians something they tell us they want very much—an opportunity to make a difference in state policy at the ballot box.

Mark Baldassare is research director at the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair and directs the PPIC Statewide Surveys. His recent books include California in the New Millennium (2000) and A California State of Mind (2002). His new book, The Coming Age of Direct Democracy, will be published next year.