Gauging the Election Mandate and the Role of "Moral Values"

By Alvin Richman

Considerable discussion has surrounded the 2004 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll finding that "moral values," selected by 22 percent of the voters, stood atop the list of issues deemed most important to voters on November 2. Some on the Republican Right contend that this finding-together with his election by a majority of the electorate-signifies that President Bush has a mandate to pursue specific, controversial social policies, affecting abortion, same-sex marriage, and stem-cell research, that are often described as "moral values."

Others have raised objections to that exit poll, arguing that the relatively broad concept of "moral values" should not have been included on a list containing such specific issues as Iraq, terrorism, economy/jobs, taxes, education, and health care. They also contend that an attempt to govern with a moral values agenda would be governing from the Republican Right, precluding the president's stated second-term objective "to reach out to the whole nation" and, working together, to evoke "the greatness of America."

What can data from postelection surveys tell us about the issues viewed as most important by the voters, and about their understanding of "moral values"? Results from six surveys using four types of question formats offer fresh insights into this debate. Each adds something different to the story about the mandate and moral values. None alone captures a complete picture.

The first type of question for which we have results is the format used by the exit poll, in which respondents identified the top issue from a list. Our data include a seven-issue list-question asked of voters by the Pew Research Center on November 5-8, which was worded identically to the NEP exit poll, and a nine-issue list, used by Democracy Corps on election day and the day after, which is, on the whole, fairly comparable to the exit poll. All three of these questions asked the voter to choose the single issue that had the most influence on his or her vote for president.

In the NEP exit poll, 22 percent of voters chose moral values as the one issue on the list of seven that mattered most in deciding their vote for president-slightly more than the proportion who mentioned economy/jobs (20 percent), and terrorism (19 percent). The Pew Center survey also found a plurality (27 percent) singling out moral values as the main issue influencing their presidential choice, and 19 percent told Democracy Corps that it was the most important issue-similar to the percentages who mentioned Iraq, terrorism/national security, and economy/jobs. Averaging these three polls, moral values places first, with 23 percent indicating it was the main issue motivating their choice for president, followed closely by economy/jobs (20 percent), Iraq (19 percent), and terrorism (17 percent).

These three polls agreed not only in consistently identifying the same four top issues, but also in how they appealed differently to Bush and Kerry voters: They found Bush voters primarily motivated by the war on terrorism (28 percent, average) and moral values (34 percent), while Kerry voters were influenced mainly by the war in Iraq (27 percent) and the economy (32 percent).

In a second approach to discerning voter intentions, the Democracy Corps furnished a useful survey model for gauging the relative strength of different issues and personality traits of each candidate-both positives and negatives-in prompting voters' decisions. Besides questions on choice of candidate and most important issue-area in deciding their votes, the survey contained four questions listing a number of pros and cons for each candidate. Voters were asked to name up to three reasons why they voted for their chosen candidate-either Bush or Kerry.

In addition, all respondents were asked to name up to three reasons for not voting for each candidate. Each of these lists contained thirteen or fourteen items, including personality traits as well as social, economic, and national security/foreign policy issues. The total response recorded on these four questions exceeded 200 percent in each case, yielding on average about 15 percent response per item. Some items were represented on both the positive and negative lists of a candidate, enabling us to weigh the net impact of those issues on the voters' assessment of that candidate.