Echoes of 1800? The 2004 Bush-Kerry Race and the Return of Partisan Politics By John Kenneth White pg 4

History usually doesn't offer presidents too many second chances. Undoubtedly, George W. Bush would like to unite the country if he could. But he may not need to. The manner in which he has won reelection suggests that he has expanded his base by eschewing the Vital Center and finding more likeminded followers. Bush manager Ken Mehlman described in a November 19 Washington Post article by Dan Balz how the Republicans used sophisticated market research to expand their voter support: "If you drive a Volvo and you do yoga, you're pretty much a Democrat. And if you drive a Lincoln or a BMW and you own a gun, you're voting for George W. Bush." By using these marketing techniques, Republicans found 3.4 million new GOP voters. Moreover, the Bush team identified 7.4 million infrequent Republican voters and 10 million more unaffiliated voters whom they believed might support Bush. As Mehlman observed, "You felt like you were in the old Chicago organization that Richard Daley used to run because we ran for president in those places and among those people as if we were running for mayor."

That strategy worked. By expanding his base and ignoring the center, the electorate itself underwent a makeover. According to the exit polls, 22 percent cited "moral values" as the most important issue. And of these voters, 80 percent supported George W. Bush, while only 18 percent backed John Kerry. In fact, Bush actually lost independents by one point and self-described moderates by an astounding nine points.

The winner of the 2004 election has been determined. But what has yet to be divined is whether George W. Bush will now act in the spirit of John Adams—whose presidency roiled the partisan waters—or Thomas Jefferson—whose presidency calmed them. Only time and chance will tell.

John Kenneth White is a professor of Politics and Director of the Life Cycle Institute at the Catholic University of America. He is the author of The Values Divide: American Politics and Culture in Transition, published by Congressional Quarterly Press in 2003.