The Political is Personal: Same-Sex Marriage and the 2004 Presidential Election by Susan Pinkus page 4

It is interesting to note that in the March 2004 L.A. Times poll, almost three-fifths of respondents said they believed that gay marriage was inevitable. However, more than half of Christian conservative fundamentalists did not believe it.

Surveys confirm that this group is unsympathetic to the gay community and disapproves of homosexual or gay rights, and majorities of them believe gays have too much political power. And this group was extremely put off by seeing gay and lesbian couples getting married in San Francisco.

When the question was asked of all respondents about the upcoming election in November, "Would you only vote for a candidate who agrees with your position on same-sex marriage, or would you vote for a candidate who held a different position than you, but agreed with you on most other issues?" almost two-thirds said they could vote for a candidate who agreed with them on most issues, but disagreed on the issue of same-sex marriage.

But almost half of the Christian conservative fundamentalists would only vote for a candidate who agreed with them on this issue. And two-thirds would not vote for a well-qualified candidate running for an elected office if that person were openly gay.

If familiarity does, indeed, lead to acceptance, most Christian conservative fundamentalists are a long way from accepting homosexual rights, relationships, or people. Three out of five said they were never around gays or lesbians. Virtually all said they believe that same-sex relationships are against God's will, and almost seven in ten believe that people are put on this earth to reproduce. They believe that if we allow same-sex marriage, it will be only a matter of time before things like incest and polygamy are legalized.

There is no question that this group and other religious right voters played a critical role in propelling Bush to victory. An increase in younger voters ages eighteen to twenty-nine and in turnout was not sufficient to overcome a Bush base that was so motivated. Ninety-four percent of Republicans voted for Bush, while 88 percent of Democrats supported Kerry. Independents were split. Almost two-thirds of the frequent worshippers backed Bush, while less than 60 percent of the occasional worshippers supported Kerry. The married men and women who tended more to oppose same-sex marriage made up 61 percent of the voters, and they decidedly voted for Bush. The single men and women who tended to be more supportive of same-sex marriage and strongly backed Kerry were only 35 percent of electorate. Even among the 4 percent of the electorate who said they were gay, lesbian, or bisexual, almost a fifth supported the president.

Without more detailed information on or analysis of the turnout, especially in states that had gay marriage initiatives on their ballots and most especially in Ohio, a direct link between the same-sex marriage issue and the outcome of the 2004 presidential election cannot be proved. However, the hypothesis certainly bears further investigation. One thing we can say for sure is that cultural and social issues did play a part. Iraq and terrorism are important issues, and it is very difficult to unseat a wartime president, but the data indicate that opposition to same-sex marriage helped give Bush an edge in becoming a second-term president.