To further study recent movement in party ID through demographic subgroup analysis, we organized the datafile to combine individual poll results based on key events, rather than using a fixed interval such as yearly or quarterly averages.

The following three major shifts in party ID identified since 2001 were selected for demographic analysis:

•  First, the post-9/11 surge which saw the Republicans move into a virtual tie in party ID with the Democrats;

•  Second, the Democratic rebound evident during the first half of 2004, when the news environment changed from victory in the Iraq war and successes of the administration in fighting terrorism to the Democratic primary campaign and questions about the adequacy of administration efforts to fight terrorism prior to 9/11 and the decision to go to war with Iraq;

•  And, finally, the post-GOP convention surge in September 2004 that reversed the Democrats' momentum and set the tone for the president's reelection in November.

The question was whether the movement seen in September 2004 displayed the same demographic patterns as the post-9/11 GOP surge or had a different character. Similar demographic patterns would suggest that the major emphasis given to the 9/11 terrorist attacks and President Bush's leadership in the war on terrorism was key to the Republican gains. Different patterns would suggest that other factors may have been more important, or at least equally important, in explaining the shift in party ID toward the GOP.

Table 5 displays the demographic characteristics of the first major shift in party ID.

Moving from the pre-9/11 to early post-9/11 period, the Republicans gained ground across the board, but those gains were generally larger among subgroups who had been less supportive of George W. Bush and his policies. The "rally 'round the flag" effect helped push Bush's approval rating to a level not seen since his father received close to 90 percent approval in the Newsweek poll after the Persian Gulf War victory, and it also seemed to boost the Republican Party's standing with those who don't generally lean that way. Republican gains were more pronounced among women than men. The Republicans improved their position significantly among African Americans, hispanics, and whites who live outside the South.

At the same time, the party ID of southern whites, a key Bush constituency, was essentially unchanged. By community size, the GOP gained more ground in the suburbs and urban areas than they did in rural areas, where Bush had particular success against Al Gore in 2000. By age and education, Republican gains were most pronounced among those under sixty-five and those with at least some college experience.