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Features at Public Opinion Pros magazine

Methods and Sample Characteristics

Interviews for this study of advertisement effectiveness were conducted using a self-administered, online questionnaire, via HCD Research's proprietary, web-assisted interviewing software. The HCD interviewing system permits online data entry of interviews by the respondents. In addition, the software allows for the tracking of individual reactions to the survey.

Respondents for the political advertisement surveys were drawn from a nationally compiled database emanating from five hundred websites, providing opt-in or double-opt-in from individuals who were interested in participating in research and who had opted in for research within thirty days of receiving the Muhlenberg/HCD study. The participants were not given an incentive to participate in the survey.

Any internet survey will fail to reach a significant portion of the voting population because of limited access to online service and sampling frames for email addresses that are not inclusive of all households. A third limitation that is more specific to studies using video clips is the limited access that internet users have to high-speed internet services. While dial-up services could accommodate the visuals we tested, the slow speed of loading the ads may have acted as a substantial deterrent to completion of the survey instrument.

With these limitations are recognized, the samples we used in our studies do maintain characteristics that reflect the broader voting population, thus providing a generally representative group of voters on whom to test the advertisement. Sample size and response rates are provided in Table A.

TABLE A

SAMPLE SIZE AND RESPONSE RATES BY ADVERTISEMENTS

ADVERTISEMENT

Sample Size

Response Rate

Ten Million

170

17%

Troubling

170

17%

Risk

189

19%

Weapons

189

19%

Optimist

426

17%

Patriot Act

426

17%

Country

438

18%

Pessimist

441

18%

Pilot

488

20%

First Choice

488

20%

Three Minutes

395

16%

Priorities

398

16%

Who is this Man

594

20%

Family Priorities

593

20%

Strength

637

21%

Any Questions

638

21%

Rassman

1106

22%

Sellout (Swift Two)

1956

20%

Shame (Swift Three)

1137

22%

 

  To maintain the integrity of the sample, a number of procedures were utilized. First, we employed password protection to limit access to the survey instrument. Each invitation to participate in the survey contained a password that was uniquely assigned to that email address. A respondent had to enter the password at the beginning of the survey to gain access to it. This process ensured that a respondent completed the survey only once. To increase the number of respondents in the survey and to improve overall response rates, respondents were presented with a summary of selected survey responses.

While our sample was clearly not a random representation of the nation's voting public, the characteristics of survey respondents shared a number of similarities with America's electorate. Table B identifies a number of key demographic qualities of our sample of voters in comparison with a profile of voters in the 2004 election gathered from national exit polling.

TABLE B

A Comparison of Sample and National Voter Demographics

Demographic

CNN Exit Poll
(n = 13,660)

Muhlenberg College Ad Surveys (n= 10,391)

Age

18-29

17%

22%

30-44

29%

35%

45-59

30%

34%

60 and Over

24%

9%

Race

White

77%

82%

African American

11%

7%

Latino/Hispanic

8%

4%

Asian

2%

4%

Other

2%

4%


Demographic

CNN Exit Poll
(n = 13,660)

Muhlenberg College Ad Surveys (n= 10,391)

Religion

Protestant

54%

49%

Catholic

27%

20%

Jewish

3%

3%

Other

7%

14%

None

10%

14%

Attend Religious Services

At Least Once a Week

42%

28%

Monthly

14%

17%

A Few Times a Year

28%

35%

Never

15%

20%

Gender

Male

54%

61%

Female

46%

39%

Perhaps the greatest concern with online samples is the exclusion of certain populations from the study, Most notably, online users tend to be younger than the population in general and, more particularly, younger than voters in the United States. As can be seen in Table A, our sample was, indeed, younger than the voting population, with a particular undersampling of individuals sixty years old or over. Our sample also contained a greater percentage of women than the broader voting population, and it underrepresented minority groups.

While acknowledging that our sample varied considerably from the voting population, we can cite some indicators that it generally reflected a number of key political attributes of American voters during the 2004 election season. First, in terms of party identification, our internet-derived sample closely approximated the partisan affiliation of the general voting population. The sample in our study, while overrepresenting liberals, was also generally reflective of the distribution of ideological perspectives among voters. The full distribution is detailed in Table C.

TABLE C

A Comparison of Political Characteristics Between the Survey Sample and Overall Voting Population

Demographic

CNN Exit Poll
(n = 13,660)

Muhlenberg College Ad Surveys (n= 10,391)

Party

Democrats

37%

33%

Independents

26%

34%

Republicans

37%

33%

Ideology

Liberal

21%

27%

Moderate

45%

39%

Conservative

34%

34%

Finally, our sample appeared to compare tightly in terms of voter preferences in the 2004 presidential campaign. More specifically, we compared the candidate preferences of survey respondents with results from major national polls taken throughout the election season of 2004. As can be seen in Table D, those of our study were fairly similar to the results of national surveys taken at similar points in time. The differences in the percentage of undecided voters was likely attributable to differences in handling of leaners.

TABLE D

A Comparison of Voter Preferences

Kerry

Bush

Other/Neither Undecided/NS

Muhlenberg Web (June 2-4)

39%

46%

16%

Fox News (June 8-9)

42%

42%

16%

Muhlenberg Web (June 15-16)

42%

42%

16%

Democracy Corps (June 12-14)

45%

45%

10%

Muhlenberg Web (June 25-26)

40%

45%

15%

Fox News (June 22-23)

40%

47%

13%

Muhlenberg Web (July 6-7)

43%

41%

16%

ABC News (July 8-11)

46%

46%

10%

Muhlenberg Web (July 12-13)

43%

41%

16%

CBS News (July 11-15)

49%

44%

7%

Muhlenberg Web (July 19-20)

40%

43%

17%

ABC News (July 22-25)

46%

48%

6%

Muhlenberg Web (Aug. 6-7)

38%

43%

19%

CNN/Gallup (Aug 9-11)

45%

46%

9%

Muhlenberg Web (Aug 17-19)

39%

44%

17%

CBS News (Aug 15-18)

46%

45%

9%

Muhlenberg Web (Aug 21 -23)

41%

43%

16%

NBC News ( Aug 23-25)

45%

47%

8%

Muhlenberg Web (Nov 1-2)

47%

51%

3%

Final Election Results

48%

51%

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