The “Swift Boat Ads” and the John Kerry Campaign: A Question of Advertising Effectiveness By Christopher P. Borick

While getting attention is important, an advertisement should also be persuasive. Figure 14 shows that, once again, "Any Questions" performed relatively well. The ad had the third-highest percentage of respondents agreeing it was persuasive, and the highest level of strong agreement.

Finally, how did the Swift Vets' initial offering measure up in terms of believability? Our study respondents were asked to view the advertisement three times. The first time, no questions were asked of them. During the second viewing, they were asked to move their computer mouse in a direction signifying either increased or decreased interest. During the third viewing, respondents rated the believability of the ad, also by moving their mouse.

As might be expected, Democrats had an increasingly negative view of the ad's believability as images of John Edwards faded to a series of anti-Kerry remarks from the Swift Vets. Figure 15 shows the running scores for advertisement believability among Democratic respondents.

The reaction of Republicans to "Any Questions" is also not unexpected, as the initial decline in believability during Edwards's air time is replaced by high ratings of believability as the series of Swift Vets' testimonials occurs (Figure 16).

The reaction of independent voters helps provide a sense of the ad's effectiveness in weakening Kerry's support among this group. The image in Figure 17 shows slightly positive and steady levels of believability among independents viewing the advertisement. While not overwhelmingly falling for the message, independents never indicated significant levels of mistrust for the advertisement while watching it.

The Swift Vets' effort to damage John Kerry's run for the White House has been trumpeted as a key event in the 2004 presidential election campaign. From political pundits to campaign managers, there is consensus that Kerry's drop in the polls during August was the result of the airing of the "Any Questions" advertisement. In this study we find evidence that the first Swift Boat advertisement possessed a number of qualities that enhanced its effectiveness in weakening support for Kerry.

Most notably, our results tend to suggest that the Swift Boat ad was a textbook example of an effective negative advertisement. Negative ads seek to plant seeds of doubt about candidates in the minds of voters. In particular, attack ads aim to weaken support for candidates among voters who are more prone to shift allegiance. This seems to have been the case with "Any Questions." While this ad caused very little movement among Democrats and Republicans who had established firm positions on the candidates, it did seem to weaken the support of independent voters who were to some degree supporting Kerry before seeing it. In a close election like the 2004 presidential election, weakening support among even a small group of voters is extremely important. Thus, our results seem to support the argument that the first Swift Boat ad was among the key factors that shaped the outcome of the race.

Christopher P. Borick is director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion and associate professor of political science, Muhlenberg College.